Chris Mason: According to Trump, the UK's new certainty is uncertainty.

The chancellor said that the world had changed, but hours later, it did so once more.

This line, which Rachel Reeves used to defend the change in priorities and budget cuts she outlined in her Spring Statement, has been a common one at Westminster in recent days.
The fact that Donald Trump is back in the White House and that they have no idea what will happen next is, at least in part, what people in government mean when they say that the world has changed.

In a recent news conference, the president of the United States announced that Washington will impose a 25% import tax or tariff on all cars that the country purchases from overseas. This is just another example of how stagecraft and statecraft are the same thing.

 

According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, the US is the second-largest market for UK auto exports, after the EU.
The UK government's approach, two and a half months into Trump's second term, has been to argue behind closed doors and say as little as possible in public.
The phrase "if in doubt, say nowt" can be used to refer to this strategy, which avoids getting sucked into criticism of the president's activities for fear of inciting his fury.
In addition, efforts have been underway to reach a trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom, which could offer some protection against Trump's caprices and insults.

All of this, however, emphasises that uncertainty is the new certainty, and a significant amount of government bandwidth is devoted to predicting potential future events and then attempting to negotiate and/or lessen the effects of any anticipated changes.

However, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), an independent forecaster, makes an effort despite being charged with the nearly difficult task of making economic estimates in the face of such whirling uncertainty.
The OBR states quite subtly that "following the election of a new US administration in November, US trade policies and those of its major trading partners remain in flux" in its most recent economic and fiscal forecast, which was released in conjunction with the chancellor's Spring Statement.

You may repeat that.
The OBR examines several possibilities in five pages when the US raises tariffs by 20 percentage points.
first on nations other than the United Kingdom, then on all nations including the United Kingdom, and lastly on all nations including the United Kingdom, provided that other nations impose comparable tariffs on American goods in return.

 

According to the forecaster, the most severe one, which involves retribution, "would almost entirely eliminate the headroom against the fiscal mandate"; in other words, it would almost nuke all of the budgetary rearranging and trade-offs that Reeves has been juggling in recent weeks.
Blimey.
Many ministers will therefore be in a desperate attempt to prevent anything approaching the events of this scenario.
And that's all ahead of what Trump has called "Liberation Day" on Tuesday of next week, when a tonne of additional duties are expected to be imposed.